Carlo Buontempo, Director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), has warned that global temperatures are likely to remain above 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels into 2027, amid intensifying El Niño conditions and exceptional heatwaves.

The warning came as the service announced on Monday that September 2026 was the second-warmest September ever recorded globally, with an average surface air temperature of 16.27°C, marking the second consecutive month with global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

September was the joint-warmest on record for western Europe and the third-warmest for Europe as a whole. Prolonged dry conditions led to record-low river flows in parts of the Rhine, Danube, Vistula and Garonne-Dordogne, disrupting navigation, water supply and agriculture in several countries. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice extent reached its third-lowest annual winter maximum.

Buontempo said crossing the Paris Agreement’s long-term limit of 1.5°C was only a matter of time, stressing that how far temperatures overshoot the target, and for how long, depends on human action. Adopted by 195 parties in 2015, the Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C.