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The United States is set to announce a sweeping new tariff plan on April 2nd, a move dubbed “Liberation Day” by former President Donald Trump. While the administration has already introduced a series of tariffs, Trump has declared that this upcoming measure will be “the big one.”

Although details remain scarce, reports suggest that the plan will focus on reciprocal tariffs—targeting countries that impose higher tariffs on US goods than the US applies to theirs. However, a notable deviation from traditional trade policy is the rumored inclusion of value-added taxes (VATs) and other non-tariff barriers as part of the retaliation strategy.

If enacted, this approach would apply a trading partner’s VAT on US imports to that country while simultaneously rebating it for US exports. This could have a significantly greater impact on global trade than reciprocal tariffs alone. Countries such as Mexico, Ireland, and Vietnam, where VATs are deeply embedded in tax structures, may experience the most severe economic repercussions. Unlike conventional tariffs that can be negotiated, this policy could lock in long-term trade barriers, adjusting more complex and less flexible.

Despite these anticipated changes, the likelihood of a US recession remains moderate. Economic growth is expected to decelerate further, accompanied by upward pressure on consumer prices. However, analysts predict that inflationary effects will subside over time due to restrictive fiscal and monetary policies.

Impact on Investors

The forthcoming tariffs introduce heightened uncertainty for businesses dependent on global supply chains and imported goods. Conversely, the services sector—largely unaffected by tariffs—may provide a safer investment opportunity in the current climate.

Lale Akoner, Global Markets Analyst at eToro, noted: “Companies that are well-positioned to weather or even capitalize on changes in border taxes include financial sector giants such as Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Mastercard (MA), and Prudential (PRU.L), as well as industrial leaders like Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), and General Electric (GE). However, businesses heavily reliant on imports—including major retailers and automakers like Walmart (WMT), Nike (NKE), Gap (GAP), and Toyota (TM)—could see substantial margin pressures. Overall, US-focused service companies may offer greater stability compared to global goods producers.”

As the world awaits the official announcement, market participants will closely monitor the implications of the new tariff structure on international trade and investment strategies.